The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures across the United States for June through August 2025. While much of the country will experience above-normal heat, regional precipitation patterns are expected to vary significantly, with critical implications for drought and wildfire conditions.

In the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Plains, below-normal rainfall is anticipated, worsening ongoing drought conditions. Much of the Missouri River Basin—including all of North Dakota and Nebraska—is expected to remain in drought through the summer. In contrast, the Eastern U.S., including the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, is likely to see a wetter-than-normal summer, offering hope for improvement in regions like Florida, where severe drought has persisted since February.
In the Southwest, including parts of Arizona and southern Texas, Extreme to Exceptional Drought (D3-D4) continues. Although Arizona’s summer monsoon may bring slightly increased precipitation, forecasts indicate drought will likely persist due to dry conditions and early runoff. Similarly, while some short-term drought relief has been seen in the Southern Plains, long-term hydrologic drought in central Texas may require more than one wet season to recover groundwater and surface water levels.

Wildfire risk is expected to escalate in several regions throughout the summer. According to the National Interagency Coordination Center, June brings elevated wildfire risk to the coastal Southeast, central Texas, the Four Corners, California, and the Pacific Northwest. In July and August, the risk shifts toward Hawaii, the Southern Plains, the Great Basin, and parts of California and the Northwest.

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